The Spike Ladder calculates the historical probability of reaching a higher spike level from any starting point. Enter a "from" and "to" level — the tool scans every episode in the ETF's history and tells you the odds, plus how long it typically took.
Get Access — Free With MembershipThe Spike Ladder turns vague intuition into precise probabilities. Here are the kinds of questions it was built for.
"UVXY is up 10% from its ATL. What are the chances it hits +50%?"
Set "From" to 10 and "To" to 50. The tool scans every historical episode where UVXY reached +10% above its running ATL and checks how many times it continued to +50%. You get the probability, sample size, and timing statistics instantly.
"There's a +30% spike happening right now. How likely is it to double from here to +60%?"
Set "From" to 30 and "To" to 60. If history shows it reached +60% in 38 of 52 episodes, that's a 73% probability. The median time was 5 days and the longest was 41 days — so you know both the odds and the timeline.
"Should I wait for a bigger spike before shorting, or is this level good enough?"
Check whether the current spike level historically continued higher. If the probability of reaching the next level is low — say 18% — you're likely near the top. If it's high — say 85% — the spike may have more room to run.
Episode-based probability analysis using the full price history of each ETF.
Set a "From" percentage and a "To" percentage. These represent spike levels above the ETF's running all-time low. For example, From +10% to +50% — or From +25% to +100%. Any combination from 0% to 1,000%.
An "episode" is the period between all-time-low resets. Each time the ETF sets a new ATL, a fresh episode begins. The tool scans every episode in the full history and counts how many times the "From" level was reached — and of those, how many continued to the "To" level within the same episode.
The result is a clean probability (e.g., 72%) plus the sample size (47 of 65 episodes). For every successful reach, the tool tracks how many trading days it took — then shows you the average, median, shortest, and longest times. You know both the odds and the clock.
Six data points from one lookup. Here's what each one tells you.
The percentage of episodes where the "To" level was reached after the "From" level was hit. Color-coded green when 50% or above, red when below. This is the headline number — the historical odds of the spike continuing to your target.
Shows exactly how many episodes hit the starting level (Y) and how many of those continued to the target (X). "47 of 65" means 65 episodes reached the starting level, and 47 of those continued higher. You can judge statistical significance yourself.
How long did it take to reach the target? The average can be skewed by a few slow episodes. The median shows the typical timeline. When these diverge, the median is usually the better planning guide for your trade duration.
The fastest the target was ever reached from the starting level. Sometimes it's the same day — meaning the spike ran from "From" to "To" in a single session. Useful for understanding how explosive the best-case scenario can be.
The most trading days it ever took to reach the target. If the longest is 63 days but the median is 8 days, you know the typical case is fast even though outliers exist. Essential for setting time-based stop rules.
Each ATL reset starts a fresh episode. A spike is only counted once per episode, eliminating noise from consolidation moves or repeated touches at the same level. This gives you cleaner probabilities than raw price-level counting.
The Spike Ladder is included free with every CI Volatility membership — along with the Spike Analyzer, decay projections, structured courses, and more.
Become a Member