Backtest any spike strategy

Spike Backtester

Run the Trade. See What Happened Every Time.

Runs your strategy across the full history of all 8 leveraged ETFs simultaneously. Two exit modes, long and short, complete trade logs, and 15+ performance metrics — computed from real data in milliseconds.

Get Access — Free With Membership
Spike Backtester 8 tickers · since 2018
Time-Based Target / Stop
Short Long
Entry Spike % Hold Days
UVXY15 trades
Win Rate86.7%
Avg Return+28.4%
Cumulative+426.1%
Best Trade+64.2%
Worst Trade-18.7%
Profit Factor3.82x
SQQQ11 trades
Win Rate72.7%
Avg Return+15.9%
Cumulative+174.5%
+ 6 more tickers, 10+ metrics each

How It Works

Configure a strategy in seconds. The engine runs every trade across every ticker instantly.

1

Set your entry spike

Pick the spike level that triggers a trade — 30%, 50%, 150%, anything. The backtester uses the same ATL-based spike detection as the rest of the CI Volatility toolkit, so your entries are consistent across all tools.

2

Choose your exit strategy

Time-Based mode exits after a fixed number of days. Target/Stop mode exits when your profit target or stop loss is hit — whichever comes first. Both modes support long and short directions.

3

Read the comparison table

Every metric is computed for all 8 tickers simultaneously and displayed side by side. The best and worst values in each row are highlighted, making it easy to compare performance across the full universe of leveraged ETFs.

4

Drill into every trade

Expand the trade log to inspect every individual trade — entry and exit dates, prices, intra-trade max drawdown, and P&L. Switch between tickers with one click. Open positions are flagged separately so you always know what’s still live.

Two Exit Strategies, One Engine

Run the same spike entries through completely different exit logic. Compare the results side by side.

Mode 1

Time-Based Exit

Enter on the spike, exit after a fixed holding period. Set any number of days from 1 to 500. Ideal for understanding how spikes resolve over specific time horizons — does decay win at 15 days? 30? 90?

Entry Spike % Hold Days Long / Short
Mode 2

Target / Stop Exit

Enter on the spike, exit when your profit target or stop loss is hit. Tracks hit rates, average days held, and median hold time. See how often the target was reached versus how often the stop was triggered.

Entry Spike % Profit Target % Stop Loss % Long / Short

Every Metric, Explained

The comparison table computes over 15 data points per ticker. Here’s what each one tells you.

Performance

Win Rate

Percentage of trades that closed in profit, displayed with exact counts (e.g., 13/15). Compared across all 8 tickers in a single row so you can immediately see which ETFs have the strongest historical edge at a given spike level.

Central Tendency

Avg Return & Median Return

The average tells you the expected value. The median tells you the typical outcome. When they diverge, the distribution is skewed — and the median is the better guide for sizing a position.

Compounding

Cumulative Return

The compounded return if you traded every qualifying spike sequentially. Not a realistic trading plan, but a powerful measure of edge — a strategy that compounds to +400% has a fundamentally different character than one that compounds to +40%.

Extremes

Best Trade & Worst Trade

The single best and single worst outcomes in the entire sample. Know the full range of what has happened historically before you size a position. The worst trade is also used as the row-level max drawdown.

Risk

Profit Factor

Total gross profit divided by total gross loss. A profit factor above 1.0 means the strategy is net profitable. Above 2.0 is strong. Above 3.0 is exceptional. Displayed to two decimal places with an “x” suffix.

Asymmetry

Avg Winning & Avg Losing Trade

How much do you make when you win versus how much you lose when you lose? A strategy with a 50% win rate can still be highly profitable if average wins are twice the size of average losses.

Trade Log

Max Drawdown per Trade

The worst intra-trade drawdown for each individual position, computed from candle highs and lows. Shows the maximum pain you would have endured during each trade, even if it ultimately closed in profit.

Target / Stop

Hit Rates & Days Held

In Target/Stop mode, see what percentage of trades hit the profit target versus the stop loss. Average and median days held reveal whether the strategy resolves quickly or requires patience.

Inspect Every Trade

The expandable trade log shows every individual entry and exit. Switch between tickers instantly. No trade is hidden.

Trade Log — UVXY
UVXY (15) UVIX (12) VXX (14) SQQQ (11)
# Entry Exit Entry $ Exit $ Max DD P&L
1 2018-10-11 2018-11-10 $48.20 $30.15 -8.2% +37.4%
2 2018-12-27 2019-01-26 $52.70 $41.88 -12.1% +20.5%
3 2019-08-14 2019-09-13 $29.35 $22.10 -5.4% +24.7%
4 2020-03-12 2020-04-11 $71.82 $46.90 -22.6% +34.7%
+ 11 more trades

Stop Hypothesizing. Start Backtesting.

The Spike Backtester is included free with every CI Volatility membership — along with the Spike Analyzer, Decay Projection, Spike Ladder, and 11 purpose-built tools.

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