The Decay Projection tool models expected price change over any number of days using four layers of historical analysis. Not one average — four independent methods, each tuned to your current market conditions.
Get Access — Free With MembershipEach layer adds more context about your current conditions. Together, they give you the most complete decay picture available anywhere.
The baseline. Calculates the average N-day return across the entire price history of the ETF — every trading day, regardless of market conditions. This tells you the "normal" rate of decay over any time horizon. It's the starting point, but it treats all periods equally.
Baseline · Always availableThe tool identifies every historical instance where the ETF spiked to the same percentage above its running all-time low as it is right now. Then it calculates what happened over the next N days from each of those points. If UVXY is currently +42% above its ATL, this layer shows you what happened every other time it was +42% above its ATL. Average return, median return, win rate, highest close, lowest close, and intraperiod extremes — all from matching conditions.
Context-aware · Matches current spikeSometimes the timing matters as much as the spike itself. This layer finds every historical point that was exactly the same number of days past its own running all-time low. If you're 18 days since the last ATL, the tool finds every other "day 18" and computes forward returns from there. Useful for spotting how far into a decay cycle you are.
Time-based · Matches days since ATLThe most precise layer. It requires both conditions to match simultaneously — the same spike percentage and the same number of days since ATL. If you're +42% on day 18, this finds every historical point that was also +42% on day 18. Sample sizes are smaller, but precision is highest. When this layer returns results, you're looking at the closest historical analogs to your exact current position.
Most precise · Dual condition matchEach projection layer returns a full set of statistics. Here's what you get and why it matters.
Your current price multiplied by the expected return. See exactly where the ETF "should be" after N days based on each analysis layer. Compare projected prices across methods to gauge the range of likely outcomes.
The average is pulled by outliers. The median tells you the typical outcome. When they diverge sharply, the distribution is skewed — and the median is the better guide for setting realistic expectations.
What percentage of matching historical instances resulted in a lower price after N days? Displayed with sample counts (e.g., 9/12) so you can judge statistical significance yourself. Higher sample sizes mean more reliable probabilities.
The highest closing price and the highest intraday price reached during the N-day window. Know the worst-case scenario for a short position — how far against you the trade has historically moved before decaying.
The lowest closing price and the lowest intraday price during the window. Know the best-case scenario — how fast and how far the decay can move in your favor within the time horizon.
Enter any number of days from 1 to 999. All metrics recalculate instantly. Whether you're planning a 5-day scalp or a 90-day position, the projection adapts to your holding period.
Every result shows how many historical instances contributed to the calculation. More matches mean more robust statistics. Fewer matches mean higher precision but wider confidence intervals. You decide how to weight it.
As the price moves throughout the day, the spike percentage and days-since-ATL change — and so do the projection results. Every layer updates in real time with the latest market data, so your analysis is always current.
See projected decay across all tracked ETFs at a glance. Sorted by strongest opportunity. Change the time horizon to any number of days.
The Decay Projection tool is included free with every CI Volatility membership — along with the Spike Analyzer, spike ladders, structured courses, and more.
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