How Often Does Your Favorite Ticker Actually Have a Green Day?

Here's a question most traders can't answer: what percentage of trading days is your ticker actually green?

The answer varies more than you'd expect, and it changes depending on the year, the volatility environment, and the ticker itself.

Introducing the Probability Lab

Probability Lab showing green vs red day percentages and year-by-year trends

The Probability Lab gives you the complete picture of price behavior for any ticker across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. See the percentage of green vs red periods, how often the price moves beyond a threshold you set, and how these patterns have shifted year by year.

What the Tool Shows You

Complete return frequency analysis for any ticker, any timeframe.

Core

Green vs Red Ratio

The exact percentage and count of periods that closed positive vs negative. Works across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes.

Threshold

Move Size Analysis

Set a move threshold (1%, 2%, 5%, etc.) and see how often the ticker moves beyond that level in either direction.

Timeframes

Daily, Weekly, Monthly

Toggle between daily close-to-close, calendar week, and calendar month returns. Different timeframes reveal different patterns for the same ticker.

Filter

VIX Regime Filter

Isolate results by volatility environment. Move frequencies shift dramatically between calm and elevated markets. The filter quantifies this shift.

Trends

Year-by-Year Chart

A bar chart showing the percentage of periods exceeding your threshold for each year. Spot whether patterns are stable, increasing, or fading.

Coverage

Any Ticker

SPX, AAPL, TSLA, UVXY, QQQ -- built-in presets plus a custom ticker input for any symbol you want to analyze.

How It Works

The tool calculates the return for every period in a ticker's history. For daily mode, it compares each day's close to the prior day's close. For weekly, it compares Friday's close to the prior Friday's close. For monthly, last trading day to last trading day.

How Traders Are Using It

Five ways traders are applying the Probability Lab to their process.

Options strike selection

Before selling a weekly put or call, check how often the ticker moves beyond your strike distance in a single week. The weekly mode gives you the exact frequency.

0DTE sizing

Selling 0DTE SPX options? Check the daily frequency at your strike distance, filtered by the current VIX level. The numbers change dramatically between calm and volatile markets.

Ticker comparison

Compare move frequencies across tickers at the same threshold. TSLA at 3% daily looks very different from AAPL at 3% daily. Find the ticker that fits your risk tolerance.

Regime awareness

Toggle the VIX filter to see how move frequencies shift in different volatility environments. A strategy that works in low VIX might not survive high VIX.

Timeframe matching

Match the tool's timeframe to your holding period. Daily for day trades. Weekly for swing trades. Monthly for position trades. Same ticker, different frequency profiles.